When India attained independence
in 1947, it was one of the poorest countries in the world. Holding its diverse population together, with
different religions, speaking in more than 20 different languages, and
preventing mass famine and fatal epidemics was India’s main challenge. However, thanks to its freedom movement,
which brought together educated and visionary leaders and idealistic masses,
the country retained a core dignity and promise which other newly independent
nations strived for. India became a
natural leader of the developing world, forming the non-aligned movement which
carved out a separate space for countries that did not want chose between the
Soviet and USA blocks. The country’s
leadership worked hard to modernize India, creating public sector organizations
that industrialized India, creating national labs for industrial, nuclear and
space research, and technology universities that were world class. While India made steady progress in major
indicators – 60% increase in life expectancy from 1950 to 1990, a 300% increase
in per capita GDP from 1960 to 1990, other developing nations leaped ahead,
some close to joining the ranks of developed economies such as South Korea or
Taiwan. China while remaining under
the rule of the Communist Party, opened its economy in waves, starting from
1979, and again in 1990s to now emerge as the world’s second largest economy. Smaller nations such as Malaysia and Thailand
embraced the manufacturing and services economy to grow out of poverty by the
early 1980s.
India by contrast never quite had
a plan. The opposition was more
interested in identity politics – mobilizing people along the lines of caste or
religion. Congress was stuck in scams
and slogans of the past, till an impending economic collapse forced it to
liberalize in 1991. While the potential
benefits was all too evident, when one considered nations like China, Korea, or
Malaysia, neither the intellectuals nor the opposition had really signed up for
the policy changes in 1991. After a
decade of moderate growth, India began to accelerate economically from the
early 2000s, with benefits in the form of better amenities, airports, metros,
malls, communication tools, higher wages available to many; more than 140
million people climbed out of poverty.
Even relatively poor states such as UP by now have about one in three homes
with a two-wheeler. Yet about 38
to 52% of the population is poor in states like UP, Bihar and MP, as defined by
NiTI Ayog’s Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index (MDPI) in 2022. When one examines other metrics such as
infant and maternal mortality , % literacy, life expectancy, we continue to
perform poorly as compared to neighbours such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and
not much better than several Sub-Saharan nations. So the benefits of liberalization and
economic growth have not been far reaching
- and India remains in several large pockets, poor and underdeveloped. For many in the middle and upper middle class
– about 30% of India, life has turned out to be better. The amenities that one could afford now were
way beyond reach or unavailable a generation ago, and this includes TVs,
appliances, vehicles, smart phones, vacations, air travel.
However there is work to be done,
the roads tend to be dusty, potholed, with pockets of garbage strewn around. 24x7 water and power supply for many is a
pipe-dream. Sanitation is poor in villages, with open gutters carrying sewage
being the norm. The railway transportation is way behind China
and Europe in terms of speeds and comfort.
Pollution is a major issue across northern and eastern India, and
impacts over 500 million people. The
society is unequal and stratified along religious and caste lines. India is facing extreme weather events thanks
to climate change and increased emissions.
And over the past 3 decades India had to face up to sponsored terror
from one country and military intrusions from another.
The question is seventy-five
years post-independence, can the country square up to these challenges and get
its act together. Do citizens of the
country understand and feel the pain? Do
its citizens realize that the agenda for the country needs to be far more
focused going forward compared to what it is being driven today? So what should be on the agenda for the
country?
There needs to be a quantum leap
in the level of amenities that need to be available and within reach for its
citizens – this includes roads, piped water, sanitation, primary health care,
good schools, and housing. India’s GDP
is $3 trillion. The country spending in
the social sector is barely 10% of its GDP.
The resources required need to be an order of magnitude higher. This cannot be done by the government on its
own. It needs to be a partnership with
the private industry and NGOs, where it makes sense. The government needs to spend more on human
resources – teachers, anganwadi workers, asha workers, nurses, doctors to make
a dent in education and health care. Yet
the country cannot print money – any strategy that does not consider
macro-economic factors such as fiscal prudence would quickly put India and Sri
Lanka of 2022 on par. The resources
required to make India a developed nation can come only from broad based
economic growth, aided by a supportive government, a moderate and soft tax
regime, a simplified bureaucracy, and innovative policies that direct economic
growth and better wages towards the poor.
The last masterstroke was MNREGA.
The country cannot ride that horse forever. It needs to drive business innovations and
technologies where rural India derives more value from its food grain and
horticultural produce, and find new opportunities from agro-waste, resulting in
agrofuels and energy. The county needs
to democratize renewable energy and ensure that even poor households are able
to sell power back to the local grids from their roof tops.
The citizens need to internalize
and understand that it is only broad-based socio-economic growth that will help
the country stand tall. Yes, India’s
unique cultural heritage and plurality makes the country special. But if India’s culture gets mired in identity
politics, its heritage would become a millstone. To progress India needs to maintain a focused
agenda which is stated below.
1.
The basics cannot be compromised, this
includes maintaining fiscal prudence, strong defence, preserving its nature
capital, and increased self-sufficiency especially for its basic needs – food,
energy , transportation.
2.
8 to 10% GDP Growth. A decade of 8 to 10% growth in GDP would
result in the economy trebling in size which would provide the required
resources to upgrade India’s infrastructure when it comes to roads, housing,
healthcare, sanitation and water, and education to that of a middle-income
country. India grew at 8 to 10% GDP for
nearly a decade from 2002 till 2011. India
must do this again.
3. New
Jobs in Sustainability and Climate Change:
This would take investments, R&D and building capacity in
current and emerging modes of renewable power and water resources. The country needs to create skilled manpower
to support renewable energy and decarbonization. However mitigating climate change would also
involve maintaining and augmenting the country’s natural capital. Ecological restoration is required in
arguably 10 to 15% of India’s landmass and this would require knowhow and
participation of local communities.
Sustainability as an economic pillar could readily exceed 15% of India’s
GDP and can cut across manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors Sustainability should be treated as a key
vertical for the country and provide employment across the spectrum, from manual labourers to PhDs.
4.
Agriculture – throughput and value creation
and addition: India has made
impressive gains in agriculture.
Techniques such as SRI have improved productivity of rice and
sugarcane. Mechanization compatible with
small land holdings has emerged in several parts of the country which reduces
input costs and improves productivity.
Drip irrigation is now commonly used to reduce water consumption. Solar and wind powered pumps can improve energy
and water security. Cold storage,
seamless and decentralised farm to retail shop connect can help. Developing new pillars around biomass-based
fuels specially for the ethanol blended fuels and energy would be vital.
5.
Current segments in full throttle: India has a fairly mature services and
manufacturing economy. Its IT and financial
sectors are booming. Inflation and
efficient taxation have reduced disposable income for most consumers. India’s recovery will be consumption
driven. India’s taxation policies need
to in tune with the imperatives of growth.
Once growth is kickstarted across the country, India’s coffers would
automatically go up. And this would
enhance the ability of the government to make a more positive impact on the
livelihoods and amenities enjoyed by the common man.
6.
A decade of peace: it is a given that for any country with a
history as long as that of India, there could have been historical injustices
and violence suffered by different segments of the society. But that is distant past. India has signed up for a secular present and
future where everyone is equal. At least
now, this should be the decade for Indians to live in amity, knowing that heart
of heart very few countries provide the space and freedom to practise one’s
cultural heritage and identity the way India does. We as
citizens of India need to watch out and ensure that the agenda is that socio
economic growth, and not strife. We have
a President of the country who comes from the Adivasi community. She cannot be a token leader. Just as the
tiger, a flagship species represents India’s nature capital, so do Adivasis, in
demonstrating how life could be led in coexistence. Their aspirations and needs have to be met
too,
India, the world’s 5th largest economy is at a
fork, never has the promise of prosperity for most been more within reach,
nor has its vulnerabilities so sharply exposed. This is the time for India to
stand up. On the 75th
anniversary of our independence.
